Before you go overboard on the scorecard, you should realize that the accuracy or importance of every one of these clues has been challenged by someone or other; see the landfall clues page. In the table below, I evaluate nine of the landfall theories. I have not evaluated the Lignum Vitae Cay theory (because there is too little published information available) nor the Virgin Islands theory (because it is more a theory of the transatlantic track than of the landfall per se).
You may also want to compare this current version of the scorecard
with my earlier version.
A capsule review of the earlier version:
"Junk." -- Neil Sealey
The scoring system (from 0 to 3):
0 = does not fit the evidence, requires assumption of major error
1 = poor fit to the evidence, requires unusual interpretation
2 = reasonable fit with the evidence
3 = perfect fit with the evidence
Islands (in order of discovery): I = San Salvador, II = Santa Maria, III = Fernandina, IV = Isabela.
The theories (regarding the identity of I = San Salvador), which are being scored in the above table are:Pla = Plana, May = Mayaguana, Sam = Samana, Con = Conception,Wat = Watlings, GrT = Grand Turk, Cai = Caicos, Cat = Cat Island, Egg = Egg Island.
| Clue | Pla | May | Sam | Con | GrT | Wat | Cai | Cat | Egg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newest model of the geomagnetic field in the 15th century, combined with analysis of the transatlantic track, points to a landfall in the south-central Bahamas.. | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Analysis of the log indicates Columbus could not have been a celestial navigator. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| References on old maps | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Columbus saw a light on the night of October 11. Theory has a place for such a light to be. | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| The map of Juan de la Cosa shows Island I as a group of islets, lying roughly east-west. | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Columbus does not say that there are more than one island at island I. | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| There was a large pond in the middle of Island I. | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Las Casas claims Island I is 15 leagues long. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Columbus explored "the other part, which is the eastern part" of Island I by boat on October 14. | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Clue | Pla | May | Sam | Con | GrT | Wat | Cai | Cat | Egg |
| The boat trip went "the length of the island." | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| The boat trip went NNE along Island I. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| There was a surrounding reef at island I. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Between the reef and the island was a large harbor. | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Columbus reported the entrance through the reef was "very narrow." | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ? | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| There was a peninsula with a narrow neck at Island I. | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| The population of Island I was in the range 500-1100 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Many islands were seen at various distances after leaving Island I, some closer than five leagues. | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| It was 5 to 7 leagues from I to II | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Clue | Pla | May | Sam | Con | GrT | Wat | Cai | Cat | Egg |
| Island II has a coast running North-South. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| The N-S coast of II faces Island I. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| The N-S coast of II is 5 Lgs. long. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| The E-W coast of II is 10 Lgs. long. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| The N-S coast of Island II was (by clear implication) not followed. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Columbus reported seeing Island III from Island II. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Columbus reported sailing on an E-W course from Island II to Island III. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Columbus reported distance from Island II to Island III as 8 or 9 leagues. | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Clue | Pla | May | Sam | Con | GrT | Wat | Cai | Cat | Egg |
| Island III was more than 20 leagues long. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Columbus reported a harbor two leagues from the end of Island III. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| There was a small island in harbor's mouth. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| The two harbor entrances at Island III were "very narrow." | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| After leaving the harbor at Island III, Columbus sailed NW. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| After leaving harbor to the NW, Columbus reported a coast running E-W. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Columbus sailed ESE on the night of October 17. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Columbus continued his attempted circumnavigation of Island III on October 18. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Clue | Pla | May | Sam | Con | GrT | Wat | Cai | Cat | Egg |
| After leaving Island III, Columbus "returned" to Island IV, "which had been left behind." | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Columbus did not sight Island IV until 3 hours after leaving Island III. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Columbus sighted Island IV to the east after sailing SE from Island III. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Columbus arrived at Island IV at the northern end. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| The coast of Island IV runs west from the northern point. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| The coast of Island IV is 12 leagues from point of arrival to Cabo Hermoso. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| There were many ponds near Cabo del Isleo (at the northern end of Island IV). | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| There was a large bight northeast from Cabo Hermoso on Island IV. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Clue | Pla | May | Sam | Con | GrT | Wat | Cai | Cat | Egg |
| From within the bight, there was a way southwest that was "very roundabout." | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Columbus departed Island IV from northern end. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Columbus's initial course was WSW from Island IV. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| After leaving Island IV, Columbus was 7 leagues from Cabo Verde on Island IV. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabo Verde is "in the western part of the southern part" of Island III. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| It is 23 leagues from Cabo Verde Fix to Ragged Islands | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Columbus reports that Island IV is 8 leagues from Island I. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Pla | May | Sam | Con | GrT | Wat | Cai | Cat | Egg | |
| Total Score | 119 | 114 | 108 | 91 | 84 | 80 | 80 | 65 | 53 |
| Average Score | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Note that the three highest scoring theories (including the top scoring Plana Cays theory) use the Crooked-Acklins group as Island II. After examining the scorecard, the question we must ask is: why would anyone support a theory that has a lot of problems when there are other theories available that have only a few problems?
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